I'm Now Independent

So I finally did it. I changed my party identity to none, thereby joining the ranks of a fast-growing segment of the electorate in this country: the independents. When I originally registered to vote, I signed up as a Democrat. However, as time has passed I've come to realize that (at least for the moment), the best representation of my views is not found in either of the two major parties nor in any of the smaller ones. Only I can accurately represent those views. Therefore, I will be the one to speak for myself on all the issues that matter to me.

Obama Win = Layoffs? Not Likely

Well, this originally started out as a response to a friend's posting of an article on Facebook talking about how a whole bunch of companies have just announced layoffs in the last two days. Needless to say, it grew from beyond a few lines into a full-fledged post of epic proportions. At that point, I realized my blog hadn't been updated in a few days anyway, so I decided to transport it over. Also, it is easier to edit and make pretty here, so might as well have fun with that too. Anyway, on to the festivities.

Obama's win just makes what companies were already planning to do to begin with look better for them. Now instead of being the villains of the media, others are eager to blame it on Obama, ignoring the fundamentals. Obama's win does provide good headlines and talking points, but they obviously are not connected. Reductions in force of those magnitudes certainly aren't decided out of the blue the morning after the election. I actually am familiar with some of the force reductions mentioned so I they were already being discussed long before the election.

Rocketdyne and Boeing both build spacecraft. That segment of the economy has been lagging for years, and recall that Bush cut NASA funding over half a decade ago. That didn't have a positive effect on that industry then, but fortunately those companies make plans for decades at time, not week-to-week. What we're seeing now is a throwback to that time (as well as the end of the Shuttle Program). While Obama hasn't exactly thrown more money that way and also cancelled the manned Mars program, I feel like he is working on a comprehensive space plan to announce over the next couple months. I'm not sure what will be in it, but hires will almost certainly be the result.

 In this case, we have replacement jobs in the exact same industry (which is already known to be unstable and highly cyclical). Boeing and Rocketdyne may be laying people off *, but the private space market is booming and others are hiring. SpaceX has a full launch manifest for the next couple years, including a mix of government and private cargoes and are preparing for again, a decade or two of anticipation. They have well over 100 open positions on their website, and most are here in the SoCal area where Rocketdyne is laying people off. Someone laid off from Rocketdyne today could start at SpaceX tomorrow without even having to disrupt much of their life. Virgin Galactic is also ramping up for preparation of the beginning of commercial space travel, so they're hiring too. And the UAV market (aka the government eyes in the sky) is booming, so those companies are also looking for talent to join their teams.

On to Hawker Beechcraft. They've been in bankruptcy since May, and were almost bought out by a Chinese company. Keep in mind that Hawker not only makes the run-of-the-mill bizjet, they also make military planes. A sale to a Chinese company would likely have been a sale of some military trade secrets directly to the Chinese government. Fortunately, that deal fell through--possibly because management was demanding another bonus to stay on after running the company bankrupt to begin with.

As for Research In Motion, they've been bleeding cash and employees for a long time now. When was the last time you met someone with a BlackBerry instead of an iPhone or something powered by Android operating system (i.e. everything else that's not an iPhone)? Do you remember when everyone had a BlackBerry? If you don't have a large circle of BlackBerry-toting friends anymore, then I think you can easily see why RIM is going through another round of layoffs: they just keep getting beaten in the free market. However, they aren't throwing in the towel just yet, they're just "restructuring" which I assume will leave them in a stronger position. They are also still hiring all over the world, with almost 100 jobs here in the US alone.

I don't even need to say anything about Providence Journal beyond it being a publisher. That whole industry has been dying a slow painful death for over a decade as the Internet has removed paper from the information equation. Several major newspapers have been or are in bankruptcy. It's only a matter of time before even more pink slips come. Anyone in that sector should have a second job or two just in case. Self-employment also becomes really handy, made all-the-more easier by Obamacare opening up more affordable insurance options.

Despite the layoff announcement, Vestas is actually a company that Obama's election will likely help. They make wind turbines and Obama is pushing forward with alternative energy investment and wind will certainly figure prominently in that strategy. Part of that strategy will likely include increased funding for wind installments via direct grants and tax credits. This is even mentioned by one of the company execs in the article The Blaze pulled the information was pulled from. However, a Romney Presidency would clearly have forced Vestas to reduce their workforce even more dramatically based on how much Romney talked about ending the wind energy tax credit permanently.

I could go on, but I think that's enough. Point is, I can guarantee that all of those force reductions have been planned for months and are due to market conditions in general, which continue to remain weak and trying for even the gurus of management. However, the bigger picture that everyone needs to realize is that the job marketplace itself is changing. No longer is (going to school and) getting a good job a plan for success because the number of good jobs is shrinking and those that do exist aren't even that great anyway. The individual who learns how to successfully manage their money to not just meet expenses, but to build an actual cushion and eventually have their money work for them will be on the right path. Everyone else will continue to hold their breath every couple months as the layoff merry-go-round spins.

At the same time, while people bemoan job losses, they're often countered by gains elsewhere. I've already given some examples up above, here're a couple more. No longer is there a man driving around dropping milk at everyone's front door. Refrigerators doesn't need a big block of ice to keep it cool. Even factories have changed quite drastically from the Industrial Revolution. Those are just a smattering of examples of the thousands of different jobs and even entire industries that have disappeared over the years. Some have been replaced with something comparable, others are gone forever. At the time they were going out of style, I'm sure there was plenty opposition and people certainly did find themselves waking up jobless. The same is true today because the free market marches on and evolves. But to deny it that ability to evolve would be to take away its most crucial freedom of all.

*Actually, a full read of that article reveals that Boeing will just move quite a few of those employees to the Commercial side which means they're not actually going to be unemployed at all. Also, The Blaze left out crucial information, like Boeing having started that reduction long time ago. This year's numbers are only 10% lower than last's, not 30% as the article might make it seem. That's quite a difference.

Go Vote!

Voter guide my union so
graciously provided me.

Well people, it's thankfully that time again! I was getting tired of the phone calls from candidates and surveyors every single day. This day also means a welcome end to the barrage of mailings that have flooded the mailbox for the last few weeks. Thankfully, I have spam filter on my email so I only got a few messages from places I've already donated. Naturally, everyone hopes that their picks are the ones that win, but we'll find out tomorrow which sides really resonated with voters. So, if you've been sitting on the fence or feeling apathetic about voting, stop and GET OUT TO VOTE!

SCOTUS vs. "Obamneycare"

That's right, I said it. Obamneycare. And before Jindal "accidentally" said it. That's because while there is much wailing and gnashing of teeth (also lots of rejoicing) in the national arena today, it's all pretty amusing to observe. Obama's healthcare law is pretty close to Romney's as governor as MA. The Republicans are predictably all in disarray, with predictions of impending economic collapse now. Concurrently, the other side is a bit happier since they get to maintain the right to now demand healthcare all the time. (Another reform is actually needed, but that's a discussion for another time.)

Of course, quietly wading throughout the whole fray was the health insurance industry. Though some companies have recently come out saying they'll keep popular provisions, they really weren't very interested in the law while at the same time loving it. The law guarantees them the entire country as a customer base, and the country is still growing. That's guaranteed money.

What they didn't like was guaranteed expenses. The provision requiring them to make 80%/85% of expenditures be for patient treatments instead of on distributions to shareholders will make it very hard to continue to pay shareholders much of a profit. I can definitely see the government having to step in and "shore up" a couple insurance companies in the nearing future as the baby boomer generation continues to get on in age while simultaneously clamoring for the latest miracle treatments. Better to do that now preemptively rather than wait to react later.

Tax 'Fatty' Foods to Lower Obesity?

So it's been quite some time since I've last posted, but I'm back. I didn't actually go anywhere, I guess I just didn't feel up to posting for awhile. Anyway, for my next act, I have a response to an article ran by ABC recently on the possibility of adding an additional taxation on sweetened beverages to discourage their consumption. Disfrute.
If it was passed, the sweetened beverage industry would find a way to avoid having their products labeled as such by upping the amount of "natural" ingredients to qualify as such, slightly decreasing the amount of sugar (which wouldn't be a bad thing in itself) to not qualify as "sugar sweetened", or a combination of the above two methods. I predict a far smaller revenue stream than originally envisioned. At the same time, using part of those monies to offset the price of more natural foods could be a laudable goal, but I have little faith in modern political process promoting actual healthy foods instead of just being a handout to the industry w/ the biggest lobbyists.
At the same time, if they want to curb the obesity rate, they should impose a 15% increase in gasoline taxes and the other 5% on the aforementioned foods. Raising the price of gasoline would force people to really think before jumping in their car to zip down to the corner store instead of just walking or riding their bike. I think that policies which promote physical activity by making it a much more attractive economic alternative to driving will have a far greater effect on obesity rates than taxing foods ever will.